The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, offering a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't seem to think so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
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The enthusiasm for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market too. Bear in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really respected player."
Even though highly regarded cash has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with multiple bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has sneaked up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at most sportsbooks. The total dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, but I currently invite any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
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Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
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Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before respected cash pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A slightly greater majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
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"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
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He did note, however, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line turn? Basically, the sports betting action.
Even though Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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